Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 32.628976 35.184245 37.956023 41.206474 44.940593 49.129244 54.230911
2025-04-27 29.417611 32.943569 37.023817 42.171575 48.609439 56.564702 67.430389
2025-05-04 27.335156 31.375810 36.257832 42.740058 51.370711 62.877581 80.200267
2025-05-11 25.450961 29.729007 35.061215 42.416091 52.695991 67.277178 91.167824
2025-05-18 23.862617 28.255077 33.865389 41.845092 53.458024 70.837631 101.615507
2025-05-25 22.455680 26.876509 32.634378 41.031417 53.671657 73.488563 111.165190
2025-06-01 21.255409 25.670521 31.516718 40.228108 53.737258 75.828709 120.770124
2025-06-08 20.112114 24.461794 30.296750 39.142153 53.194995 77.000089 128.377597
2025-06-15 19.780372 24.321772 30.538351 40.221692 56.218609 84.958107 153.812519
2025-06-22 19.111365 23.672200 30.001653 40.047308 57.106924 89.102546 172.266745
2025-06-29 18.359908 22.866130 29.184455 39.355991 57.000883 91.241042 186.502164
2025-07-06 17.550207 21.940369 28.139998 38.220102 55.971750 91.277154 194.661606
2025-07-13 17.357227 21.903439 28.438721 39.334844 59.282542 101.634703 245.084501
2025-07-20 17.109302 21.774688 28.591166 40.224435 62.324174 112.404552 311.756169
2025-07-27 16.792956 21.526296 28.538557 40.750238 64.722532 122.424267 394.044223
2025-08-03 16.314763 21.014405 28.042102 40.450611 65.371622 128.022612 465.342446
2025-08-10 15.820974 20.458092 27.445155 39.922239 65.461322 132.098429 538.995640
2025-08-17 15.312077 19.859615 26.751992 39.168697 64.966619 134.323890 607.087462
2025-08-24 14.836217 19.294618 26.087802 38.424047 64.408706 136.253687 683.670382
2025-08-31 14.333568 18.672967 25.307134 37.416262 63.148569 135.611282 732.413722
2025-09-07 14.259699 18.703683 25.589427 38.418097 66.678305 152.645880 1192.735108
2025-09-14 13.965311 18.382590 25.275102 38.256352 67.412601 160.035394 1631.533634
2025-09-21 13.596887 17.934868 24.731601 37.614811 66.888242 162.384759 2009.337044